After China's seamless pipe exports peaked at 6.28 million tons in 2025, the market entered an adjustment phase in 2026. According to Mysteel analysis, full-year exports are projected to decline to 5.6-5.8 million tons, ending five consecutive years of growth, while the average price decline narrows to within 3%, presenting a "volume contraction with price stabilization" pattern. First-half exports totaled 2.928 million tons, with the Middle East core market falling 33.55% year-on-year, while Southeast Asia and North Africa emerged as growth drivers, shifting the regional focus from "Middle East dominance" toward multipolar rebalancing.
Supply-side pressure persists. Since 2022, new and proposed capacity has exceeded 10 million tons, with 2026 capacity potentially climbing to 44.41 million tons, while industry capacity utilization has long hovered in the 65%-70% range. The scissors gap between high costs and low prices has compressed margins, with May 2026 average seamless pipe prices below 4,350 yuan/ton and industry profit margins falling below 0.3%, while billet-rolling mills have recorded negative annual profits.
Structural opportunities remain. Oil and gas extraction and transportation still occupy the top demand position, with deepwater and shale gas development driving full order books for high-grade pipe, and some premium production lines operating above 90%. Following the tightening of export management policies, seamless pipe has been included in the export licensing system, pressuring the pure "price-for-volume" export model to transform. The industry is at a critical window transitioning from scale expansion to value creation.
